The Minnesota Timberwolves are in trouble.
Literally in trouble, for the word is defined as, “a situation in which you experience problems, usually because of something you have done wrong or badly.” And that succinctly sums where these 2024-25 Wolves are right now.
Through the first dozen games of the season, they stand at six wins and six losses, which at first blush feels more like mediocrity than disaster. Plumb a little deeper into the situation and the problems, however, and the second blush brings a tinge of embarrassment for the ways the Wolves have performed.
They have the second-highest payroll in the 30-team National Basketball Association. Players are getting paid extraordinary sums because the Wolves went beyond the first round of the playoffs for only the second time in their 35-year existence last season — all the way to the Conference Finals, the “final four” of the NBA — and the team’s front office banked on repeating that thrilling experience.
That has not happened. Last season’s edition of the Wolves didn’t lose their sixth game until Dec. 20, having already registered 20 wins. They never lost three in a row during the entire 82-game campaign. From November through April, they brandished the stingiest defense in the NBA.
The 2024-25 Wolves go into Sacramento to play the Kings Friday night with a three-game losing streak, all against opponents that have lost more than they have won this season. According to the “strength of schedule” metric at basketball-reference.com, the Wolves have played the third-easiest slate of games — only three of their first twelve contests have come against teams with winning records.
They have played those dozen games in remarkably good health. An unprecedented spate of significant injuries has marred the beginning of this NBA season, with more than a dozen teams losing one of their top three players for at least three games due to some physical malady. Meanwhile, until 18-year veteran point guard Mike Conley rested on the tail end of a back-to-back pair of games against Portland Wednesday night, the top eight players who comprise the Wolves regular rotation have been suited up and ready to go this season.
There are myriad, interlocking reasons why the Wolves have underachieved despite these early-season advantages. The trade of multiple All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns to the Knicks has disrupted continuity, and while Minnesota received two quality players (forward Julius Randle and combo guard Donte DiVincenzo) in return, KAT’s absence has hurt the rim protection he provided on defense as the backup center when Rudy Gobert sat.
While Randle has played well in what was KAT’s primary role as the starting power forward, his unique style as the hub of a wheel in the half-court offense — drawing multiple defenders due to his brutish ability to score in the low post, then kicking it out to open teammates — requires adjustment for both its pace and primacy. At this early stage, it is difficult to know if it’s responsible for the slow starts of Conley, the floor general, and McDaniels, the fifth option among the five starters.
Where’s the defense?
But what is clear is that the Wolves have lost their defensive identity. The character of a team is shaped and fortified by knowing there is an aspect of the game in which it is reliably elite. The Wolves of 2023-24 played suffocating defense, as opponents scored fewer points per possession against them than any other team. That’s because they discouraged attempts and denied success on shots in the paint and beyond the three-point arc, the two most efficient places to score on the court.
Specifically, using the “defensive dashboard” stats at nba.com, the Wolves ranked first in opponent inaccuracy and fourth in opponent infrequency on shots taken less than six feet from the rim last season. From three-point territory, they were seventh in opponent inaccuracy and fourth in opponent infrequency. Bottom line, nobody allowed fewer field goals at the rim and only two teams allowed fewer three-pointers to be converted.
This season, the Wolves have actually allowed the fewest three-pointers to be scored on the second-fewest attempts from behind the arc in the NBA. But Minnesota ranks 23rd in fewest shots attempted within six feet of the rim, and 20th in fewest shots converted in that painted area. Overall, opponents are neither discouraged nor effectively denied from close range. Consequently, the team’s overall defensive rating has slipped from first last season to eighth this year.
The cause-and-effect relationship between attitude and performance in sports is always a chicken-and-egg proposition. But it is apparent that the Wolves are not playing with the same amount of pride and cohesion as they were a year ago. This is especially true on defense, although the offense is not really exempt either.
Yes, the Wolves have risen from 17th in points scored per possession a year ago to 13th this season. But due to the overall offensive inefficiency in the NBA thus far this season, that simply means they have declined less precipitously, from 114.6 points scored per 100 possessions a year ago to 113 points in the 2024-25 campaign.
Also, this season’s offensive firepower has been inordinately affected by the fact that Anthony Edwards has come out shooting three-pointers like Steph Curry. And when that isn’t the case, the bottom falls out of the offense. In the Wolves six wins this season, Ant has shot 49.3% on his 11.8 three-point attempts per game. In the team’s six losses, he has shot 34.8% on 11 three-point attempts.
During this awful three-game losing streak, Wolves coach Chris Finch has been very understated in his reaction. After the second loss to Portland Wednesday night, he was still maintaining that it was “early” in the season, time enough to be dedicated, but patient and deliberate in re-establishing a ballclub capable of contending for a championship.
But with 12 games — essentially 15% of the season — gone, it’s not that early. Not when you consider the depth of a brutally competitive Western Conference and the schedule-breaks and injury-luck the Wolves have enjoyed thus far.
Searching for solutions
So, how to speed the process?
There are a lot of options, but here is the one I’d pursue: Replace Randle with Naz Reid in the starting lineup.
The Wolves unfamiliarity has been evident in a plethora of silly turnovers and blown defensive assignments, both due to miscommunication and not knowing the habits and instincts of collective lineups. Making Naz a starter eliminates that “getting to know you” time lag among the quintet playing together the most.
When KAT went down for a solid month with a torn meniscus in his left knee last season, Naz took his place in the starting lineup and the Wolves won 10 of 14 games over that span. The 200 minutes with Naz, Gobert, Ant, Conley and Jaden McDaniels on the floor was the second most-utilized quintet for the 2023-24 Timberwolves. Granted, the net rating of that unit was lackluster — they both scored and allowed just 102.1 points per 100 possessions. That amounts to horrible offense and great defense. But if this team is serious about contending for a ring, defense needs to be the priority.
Naz’s track record with the most important Timberwolves starters further bolsters the case. In the 1235 minutes that he and Ant shared the court last season, the Wolves scored 112.6 points per 100 possessions and yielded 104.3, for a net rating of +8.4. In the 917 minutes Naz and Gobert played together, the numbers were 108.6 points scored and 99.4 allowed for a net rating of +9.2 points per 100 possessions. And when Naz, Gobert and Ant played together for 572 minutes, the Wolves scored 109 points, yielded a misery 95.8 for a whopping net rating of +13.2 points per 100 possessions — the best of any three-player lineup that logged more than 500 minutes together.
Gobert and Naz continue to be a formidable frontcourt tandem on defense. In 136 minutes together thus far this season, the Wolves give up only 97 points per 100 possessions while scoring 107.2. That +10.2 net rating is the best for any pair of players that isn’t net-ratings stud Nickeil Alexander-Walker and has logged more than 100 minutes together. (NAW has the top four 2-player net ratings, with, in order of positivity, Gobert, Naz, Ant and DiVincenzo.)
Numbers aside, since the Wolves acquired Gobert, Naz has tailored his body to become a combo forward, and was dynamic enough at it last season to be named 6th Man of the Year in the NBA. Having him guard opposing centers in the second unit while weighing just 235 pounds does a disservice to both him and the team and threatens to erode the wing-player skills he has refined that make him special.
Bumping Randle to the second unit is politically fraught. He’s a 10-year veteran with a player option on whether or not to end his contract after this season and finish it with the Wolves next year for $31 million — slightly below-market for his skills. He is a proud competitor who has done and said all the right things to fit in with this team. And he is a valuable offensive component who draws and takes advantage of double-teams whenever he steps on the court.
On defense, however, Randle has steadily left something to be desired. His closeouts to shooters and box-outs for rebounds lack the alacrity and habitual regimen required for a top-notch team defense. It seems like these flaws would be less onerous if he flipped roles with Naz and became the de facto backup center on the second unit. He is more solid — I’ve described him as a stack of rectangles — and packs 250 pounds into what would admittedly be his undersized, 6-8 height for the position.
A possible offensive spark
The Naz-Randle switch could also benefit the Wolves offense. Naz instead of Randle would provide more spacing for Ant to operate and for Conley and Gobert to run pick-and-rolls. And watching Naz and Ant cavort together is an aesthetic delight as well as a potent point producer from all over the court.
On the flip side, Randle instead of Naz would unite him more frequently with his Knicks teammate DiVincenzo, a boost in familiarity. And being surrounded by a pair of defensive, active combo guards in DDV and NAW, who are both capable and willing three-point shooters, to synergize his hub-in-the-wheel kick-outs seems promising.
Of course when Gobert sits and Randle and Naz again comprise the second-unit frontcourt (albeit in hopefully different roles), the lack of rim protection remains a problem. One solution might be for Finch to toy more frequently with a more dramatic shift, a small-ball second unit lineup with Randle at center and McDaniels at power forward. A gamble, to be sure, but the status quo isn’t promising.
One last thing before we close out here. Rotation changes between the Wolves of this year and last season inevitably focus on losing KAT and gaining Randle and DDV. But the Wolves woes are also tied to the departure of Kyle “Slo Mo” Anderson, an incredibly versatile player who could run an offense like a point guard, capably defend wings from shooting guards to power forwards, and be a tough, vocal leader in the locker room. Many of the seams being exposed on this current team would be caulked by his presence on the roster.
After the Wolves blew a home game in the final minutes against Miami last weekend, Finch said in Portland that “we talk about these next five to 10 games, we’ve really got to start forging an identity. That’s what is going to carry through the rest of the season.”
Two games later, the forging has been faulty. And the rest of the season looks to be more of a burden.
Britt Robson
Britt Robson has covered the Timberwolves since 1990 for City Pages, The Rake, SportsIllustrated.com and The Athletic. He also has written about all forms and styles of music for over 30 years.
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